When Defense Invites Attack
The Deterrence Paradox in Modern Strategy
From the essay
The shield may stop the blow. But the sword may prevent the blow from ever being struck. Defense and deterrence are not the same. A shield may reduce damage while leaving the enemy fully willing to strike again. Deterrence does not begin when an attack is intercepted. Deterrence begins when the adversary decides not to attack at all. It feels cleaner to build shields than to sharpen swords. But deterrence is not built out of feelings. It is built out of consequences as perceived by the adversary. Defense remains valuable. It remains necessary. But it is not the center of the deterrent equation.